dinsdag 22 januari 2013

Exit polls Israelische verkiezingen: Netanyahu winnaar?

 
Gemakshalve wordt in de berichtgeving veelvuldig onderscheid gemaakt tussen een rechts blok dat momenteel op 61 zetels staat en een links blok dat op 59 zetels staat. "972Mag" is wat zorgvuldiger en spreekt van rechts-orthodox tegenover centrum-links-Palestijns. "Palestijns" is daarbij overigens de politiek-correcte term voor Israelische Arabieren, hoewel zeker niet alle Israelische Arabieren zichzelf als "Palestijn" wensen te karakteriseren.
 
Likud-Beiteinu blijft de grootste partij, dat was al duidelijk, en dat Netanyahu zichzelf tot winnaar van de verkiezingen uitroept hoeft ook niet te verbazen, maar een verlies van zo'n 25% ten opzichte van de vorige verkiezingen, is bepaald geen overwinning te noemen.
 
Dat Olmert toch had willen terugkeren in de politiek is me nieuw, en ik vraag me af of dat klopt.
 
Wouter
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Live Blog: Exit polls show slight edge for the Right; Netanyahu takes a hit 

http://972mag.com/live-blog-israeli-elections-2013/64466/  

 

EXIT POLLS:

CHANNEL 2: Likud 31; Jewish Home 12; Otzma Le-Yisrael 0; Shas 12; United Torah Judaism 6; Kadima 0; Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid) 19; Hatn’ua (Tzipi Livni) 7; Labor 17; Meretz 7; Hadash 4; Balad 2; United Arab List 3; Right-Orthodox Bloc 61; Palestinians-Center-Left 59.

CHANNEL 1: Likud 31; Jewish Home 12; Otzma Le-Yisrael 2; Shas 11; United Torah Judaism 6; Kadima 0; Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid) 19; Hatn’ua (Tzipi Livni) 7; Labor 17; Meretz 7; Hadash 3; Balad 2; United Arab List 3; Right-Orthodox Bloc 62; Palestinians-Center-Left 58. 

CHANNEL 10: Likud 31; Jewish Home 12; Otzma Le-Yisrael 0; Shas 13; United Torah Judaism 6; Kadima 0; Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid) 18; Hatn’ua (Tzipi Livni) 6; Labor 17; Meretz 6; Hadash 5; Balad 2; United Arab List 4; Right-Orthodox Bloc 62; Palestinians-Center-Left 58.

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11.00 PM: What to make of these results:

First, they are a bit too close to call, so most politicians will wait before speaking about future governments. There is a slight chance that we will end with a 60:60 draw between the blocs and that would change everything. In 2009, the final results were similar to the exit polls as far as the margin between the blocs was concerned,  but earlier elections had the Right doing better in the real counted votes than in the polls.

Having said that, the only candidate that could lead the Center-Left is Lapid, and he announced that he would enter Netanyahu’s government. So as long as the results stay similar to the polls we can imagine a coalition of Lapid, Jewish Home, Netanyahu and either Livni or Shas, or both.

I don’t see a coalition that would deal with the Palestinian issue emerging from these results. We are actually not far off from what happened in the previous elections, with Lapid, Livni and their new parties taking the spot that Kadima occupied. And we saw exactly what kind of policies this past government was able to produce.

Kadima, by the way, is gone. The big loser is former Prime Minister Olmert who wanted to use the party as a platform for his return to politics.

 

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